The SP500 has entered a high-conviction bullish configuration, with the Price Thrust model producing a buy signal on 30 May while price remains firmly above its long-term trend. This signal arrives after the market transitioned from a Risk-Off to a Neutral regime earlier in May, creating an alignment between short-term momentum, broader market conditions, and trend acceleration.
1. Early Momentum Signal (MoEaT)
A momentum-based model (MoEaT) generated a preliminary buy alert on 02 May. While directionally constructive, the signal was not actionable at the time, as the market remained in a Risk-Off state.
Crucially, the MoEaT model itself was already beginning to show improvement in early May, signaling that underlying trend dynamics were gradually shifting toward constructive territory. While this early signal alone did not justify a trade, it set the structural foundation for follow-through once broader market conditions stabilised.
Market Regime Shift
The Market Monitor recorded a regime upgrade on 15 May, moving from Risk-Off → Neutral. This shift resolved the macro-level headwind that had kept early momentum signals on hold:
- Liquidity conditions stabilised
- Participation metrics improved from extreme lows
- Trend efficiency stopped deteriorating
This Neutral regime does not imply an immediate bullish breakout but sets the stage for momentum follow-through to become actionable.
Price Thrust Signal (30 May)
The Price Thrust model’s 30 May buy signal confirmed the final piece of the puzzle:
- Price reclaimed and sustained levels above the long-term trend
- Forward momentum accelerated materially
- Internal trend quality reached a threshold consistent with durable continuation
This creates the historically robust configuration: early momentum, regime stabilisation, and trend acceleration all aligned—a setup associated with persistent trends rather than low-quality rebounds.
Importance of Signal clustering
The convergence of 2 models within an encouraging Market regime signals that selling exhaustion has passed and the market’s internal trend dynamics are becoming constructive. High-conviction conditions:
- Early momentum and structural trend models turn constructive
- The market regime confirms stabilisation
- Price acceleration validates trend continuation
are present in the current SP500 setup, producing one of the strongest bullish confirmation clusters in recent months.
Interpretation
The combination of:
- Momentum and structural trend models improving
- Regime reversal out of Risk-Off
- Confirmed price thrust above long-term trend
constitutes a high-conviction signal. The SP500 is entering a market environment where trends are likely to persist with strength and durability.