The Nasdaq (NQ futures) has registered a significant alignment of momentum-based signals following a period of elevated volatility and structural weakening. Two independent models, the momentum pullback model and the momentum early-trend model, have triggered in sequential fashion, marking a meaningful shift in short-term tactical conditions.

Given the RISK OFF state of our Market Regime, this Dual Trigger can only be treated as a short term tactical play where as a single model triggering within a RISK OFF Market Regime would not be considered at all

Summary of signal timing

• Momentum Pullback (MoPB): triggered on the 25th April 2025.
• Momentum Early Trend (MoEaT): triggered on the 2nd May 2025.

The gap of one week between the two signals establishes a clean order of operations:
first a stabilising pullback, then the emergence of early trend behaviour.

1. Momentum Pullback (MoPB) – Controlled reset within trend

MoPB triggered at the end of the 21 April week after Nasdaq declined into its trend cluster and stabilised without breaking the underlying structure.

The chart (NQ_MoPB) shows:

• a defined pullback into the rising trend band
• stabilisation despite volatility in recent weeks
• the re-appearance of positive momentum inflection

Interpretation:
Momentum compressed and reset rather than breaking down, paving the way for further signal development.

2. Momentum Early Trend (MoEaT) – A rare upside signal

MoEaT triggered at the end of the 28 April week, marking the emergence of early-phase trend behaviour following the prior momentum reset.

The chart (NQ_MoEaT) highlights:

• the turn from stabilisation to early upside expansion
• the re-establishment of upward directional behaviour
• price re-engaging with short-term trend structure

Interpretation:
The MoEaT signal is uncommon in NQ futures and typically reflects the early stages of a trend rebuilding after a period of disorder. It gains conviction when it appears alongside other supportive internal signals—this time with MoPB in the prior week.

Confluence and Structure

The notable feature of this setup is the two-week alignment:

1. 21 April: MoPB signalled that selling pressure had moderated and stabilised.
2. 28 April: MoEaT signalled that momentum began turning upward from that stabilised base.

The combination indicates that Nasdaq has transitioned from reactive volatility into an early rebuilding phase of trend behaviour. This does not assert a full structural recovery. It does, however, mark a change in the internal character of the market.

Market Character

Current internal behaviour reflects:

• a controlled momentum reset
• early-trend re-acceleration
• reduction in downside momentum pressure
• stabilisation along key trend levels

Elevated volatility means pullbacks will remain abrupt, so risk management should still anchor around key trend levels. However, internal momentum conditions have shifted from deterioration to constructive early-phase rebuilding.

Recommended Posture

Given the dual-signal alignment:

• Initiate or increase tactical long exposure in Nasdaq
• Monitor internal momentum closely for confirmation that early-trend strength continues to develop.
• Remain selective rather than aggressive, as broader structural conditions still require validation.

Final Interpretation

Nasdaq has entered a constructive tactical phase following the sequential activation of MoPB on 21 April and MoEaT on 28 April. This alignment represents a transition from reactive weakness into early-trend improvement. The framework therefore issues a formal Nasdaq long alert, focused on tactical upside participation while monitoring for continued internal stabilisation.

Caveat: Given the RISK OFF state of our Market Regime, this Dual Trigger can only be treated as a short term tactical play where a single model triggering within a RISK OFF Market Regime would not be considered at all.